The Tin Lizard

How Epidemics Happen

ABC television news reports that an estimated 69 million people in the U.S. believe that the flu vaccine can give them the flu.  Interestingly, many of the "man-in-the-street" interviewees who said they believed this, and had not got the shot, were younger folks who appeared to be in their 20s and 30s.

Can there be any better indication of how badly our education in basic science has failed our younger generations?  Or could it be that what people learn from the College of Twitter tends to trump real fact?  Either way, the failure/refusal of so many to get the flu shot endangers the general population.  This is how epidemics happen.

Newtech Becomes Oldtech Rapidly

Our standard wall plug for appliances, lamps, and the like in the U.S. has two simple  flat-blade prongs, with one prong broader than the other.   This form prevents improper polarization, which is a danger in some types of electrical devices. 

It wasn't always that way.  Plugs used to have two flat blades of equal breadth.  I still think of the current configuration as the "new" style plug, and in the back of my mind, I harbored the impression it was introduced perhaps ... 20 years ago.   Lately, though, I found out the big change in wall plugs was actually introduced in 1962, exactly fifty years ago.

How time flies!  Other changes, too have sometimes escaped me.  Care to guess about the chimsel (CHMSL - "center high mount stop lamp,") better known as the brake light in the center of the rear window on your car?  I've just checked and that's only been around since 1986.  But old habits die hard, and I remember having a devil of a time when my 2003 Volvo was telling me I had a brake light out ... yet I'd go to the back of the car and look, and they were "both" working!   I replaced both bulbs but the dashboard continued to insist a light was out.   Embarrassingly, it took a visit to the service center before I realize my problem. 

I can also recall returning from assignment in Yugoslavia in the mid-1970s and being puzzled by the electronic gas pump, which by then was common in the U.S. but not in Yugoslavia.  I had no idea how to get gas out of that thing the first time I saw it!  But try to find one of those old-fashioned mechanical pumps now.

The lesson I take from this is ... I'm old!  Well no, that is true but it's not the lesson.  The lesson is that minor technological changes in the way we do things can seem troublesome or costly at first (the CHMSL was very controversial when first introduced because it added to the cost of cars), but very quickly become second nature.  The "new" can take over from the old to the point that the "old" hardly seems to exist any longer.  This is self-evident in the case of high-tech like cell phones, but I like these examples because they demonstrate the same is true for much less esoteric changes.

It;s good news for those who advocate burying power lines to reduce outages.  If we had begun burying lines even two decades ago, in every new development and in every installation that was razed and replaced, we'd have the job more than half done by now.  We need to start somewhere.

Storm Tech

We're just emerging from the aftereffects of Hurricane/Tropical Storm Sandy.  We were lucky to be on the southern edge of the storm's track so we suffered nothing like the damage inflicted on New Jersey and New York, mainly about 12 hours of high winds, some downed trees, and about 6 inches of rain.

The downed trees, as always, knocked electric power out for a day or two, but we've almost got used to that (in fact authorities were actually predicting outages), and kudos to our utility, Dominion Virginia Power, for restoring power quicker than expected.

One thing we observed during the three outages we have experience this year, though: With power out, you're actually more disconnected than you used to be.  Your fiber-optic phone line doesn't stay connected like the old copper lines did; you have battery good for about 8 hours, and then kaput.  Cordless phones in the house?  They'r out of commission as soon as the power goes off anyway.  Your cell phone will need recharging at some point but there will be no power to do so except of course from your car, or if you have bought a generator (which we finally did).  Television and the internet are out (unless you invested thousands in a whole-house generator, which we did not). 

Oldtech works.  The old-fashioned paper newspaper still appeared on the front walk.  The snail mail still came through the mail slot.  No biggie, maybe, for a day or two.  But in the event of a long-term, serious emergency, can we afford to be without these systems.

 

Too Much Warning

Here in the greater DC area, once again we are awaiting the arrival of a huge, unusually powerful, and potentially dangerous storm, Hurricane/Tropical Storm Sandy. Weather forecasters are having a field day issuing warnings, describing the possible damaging effects (high winds, heavy rains, floods, downed trees, power outages), and advising us to take precautions and stock up on gas, food, and water. 

No doubt it's a good thing that science is able to tell us well in advance when a big storm is approaching.  Ultimately, forewarning reduces damage, saves lives, enables certain events to be called off -- for example, a couple of political campaign rallies have already been cancelled (AWW), but not the Marine Corps Marathon Sunday.

At the same time, I think forecasting and preparation really can be overdone.  The constant drumbeat of predictions, warnings, and alarms simply adds to the level of tension and constant noise in our modern lives without truly adding much to our well-being.   For example, my wife and I did our routine grocery shopping this morning - the local farmers' market and a supermarket - and found stores packed at 7:00 AM, people racing around snapping up basics like water, milk, and bread (of which items shelves were already mostly empty).  Maybe they'll go home from there and sandbag their basement door, if it lies low, or tape their windows - who knows?

But the storm isn't supposed to be here until Sunday around midday.  Meanwhile, today is as beautiful a fall day as anyone could wish for, with not the least sign a storm is in the offing.  It's an excellent day for being out enjoying the fresh air.  It's enough to know a storm is coming, and when, but it's better not to get so wrapped up in taking precautions against something we can't prevent that we miss the forest and the trees. 

Why Trigonometry?

I thought about trigonometry today.   (No, really, I did!)

For some reason, for the first time in about 50 years, I remembered trigonometry.  It was one of the triumvirate of high school math courses everybody in a "college-bound" curriculum had to have:  geometry, trigonometry, algebra.  I also took a college-credit course (which would now be known as "advanced placement), in calculus.   

Of those four courses I have found some use in life for geometry, algebra, and even calculus, which is central to probability theory.   But I can't think of a single instance where I've ever had to concern myself with the secants, tangents, and sines that are the bread-and-butter of trig.  I've never even cosined a loan!  Nor could I recall, when I thought about it, exactly what trigonometry was about.

Wikipedia to the rescue!  Trigonometry "studies triangles and the relationships between their sides and the angles between these sides."  Gee, that makes it clearer, doesn't it?  What was most shocking was that the subject is said to be a prerequisite for calculus.  As I said, I took calculus, I passed calculus, and I remember a major focus on measuring the space under a wavy line ... but I don't recall trigonometry being involved in it. 

I suppose it's a good thing I didn't go into certain fields like astronomy and navigation, where trig is said to be essential.  Since I didn't, though, I'm free to again forget all about trigonometry, the one subject in high school that seems to have been a total waste.  

 

New At The Zoo

How can today's "zoological gardens" reconcile the needs of the animals they keep (for comfort, natural habitat, and the like) with the expectations of the people who come to see them (for accessibility, activity, but also safety)?

Good question, and today's Washington Post Magazine feature article on the National Zoo does a good job of describing how today's zoos are trying to resolve the problem. It's worth a read.

Certainly, if like me, you return to a zoo you used to know after years of absence, you're going to find that a lot of things have changed in the interim.  Zoos no longer try to emphasize variety, but to expand the space offered to those animals they do keep, and in some cases to breed them.  At Washington's National Zoo, for example, they will no longer keep both kinds of elephants, and hippos have been banished altogether, in order to expand the room to roam for the Asian elephants, who will remain on site.

Most zoos now also expend a lot of effort to manage the animals' environment in ways that seek to provide more interaction with their environment, while also offering up the close personal observation that most zoo visitors seem to want.  When all is said and done, though, everyone seems to agree that the denizens of modern zoos are neither truly wild (a surprising number weren't even born wild, but in captivity) nor really "tame." 

For me the article raises as many questions as it answers:

Are efforts to accommodate the animals on both sides of the bars worthwhile?  This is pretty easy:  I'd say yes, we expect these days that the creatures will be granted living space and treated in a humane way; and the economics of keeping them means that the spectators have to come away with some sense of getting value from their visit.

Does the concentration on fewer species make sense?  Over time, probably.  The space available to any zoo is limited, so efforts to provide better "living quarters" inevitably mean they'll be fewer in number.  It occurs to me the trend may even benefit zoos nationally -- if you go all the time to the Brookfield Zoo, there's hardly a reason to visit a zoo in another city when you're there, if you know they'll have pretty much the same animals.  You might, however, if you can expect to see something different.

Should we bother with zoos at all?  Do we need them, except as a handy word to use up a "z" in "Words With Friends?" This is a tougher one.  In the internet age, you can see animals in the wild, unrestrained by zoo boundaries, any time you want.  Still, for most of us, the closer, in-person experience adds considerably to our wonder, our understanding, or our interest.  (Just as viewing a concert on DVD, or seeing a sports event on TV, isn't the same as being there.)  On balance, I think we'll keep zoos around for a while but I wouldn't be surprised to see some of the smaller and more marginal ones begin to disappear.

Weedy Wonder

Crabgrass gets no respect.  But we should perhaps take a moment to focus on the miracle that is Digitaria sanguinalis.  Take for example, the specimen pictured below.  I am quite certain there was no sign of it a week ago, yet as a week of blazing sun in the mid-90s or higher sizzled other grass, this little guy got a start in life and took off running; then two days of heavy rain turned him into a behemoth, a huge hunk of hearty herbaceousness about six inches across. And this plant isn't alone, not at all, because crabgrass tends to travel Japanese-style, in large clusters (but without the cameras). 

So, let's admire the humble crabgrass for its ubiquity and persistence.  It's not even a wholly ugly plant in the early morning, speckled with dew.  

Security For Computers

I guess it's really true that anyone with a computer ought to have some program in place to protect it from evil-doers sending viruses, spam, trojan horses, keyboard loggers, and all kinds of other bad stuff.

My security program subscription expired recently.  I had been using the product for several years so I decided it was time for a change.  I spent at least a couple of hours, probably longer, looking at reviews and rankings.   The rankings I found varied wildly in their selection of which are the two or three "best" programs - there's Kaspersky, and G-something, Avira, Norton, at least 15 or 20 "security suites," including a couple of free ones.  How to decide?

What I eventually discovered was that the difference between the top choice and the #20 choice in most of these rankings is marginal.  ALL of them do a pretty good job these days, and the differences often lie more in the interface than in the actual performance.   I renewed my "same-old, same-old," and saved myself the time and effort of having to remove one program, install another, and learn its quirks.

Best advice, in my view:  If you've got one you like, there's no need to go chasing after "the best" unless you're a serious geek.  Otherwise, stick with what you've got and you'll be just as well off. 

Spacex Junk

The private company Spacex, now that the NASA shuttle program has ended, is sending rockets into space.  One was supposed to launch today, intended among other tasks to deliver parts to the international space station, but it was aborted at the last moment and will be rescheduled.

All well and good, I suppose, but I was appalled to hear a second part of the story:  A capsule containing the ashes of a bunch of dead people is aboard, and will be jettisoned into space.

Seriously, isn't there enough debris in space from all the stuff humankind has put up there over the past half-century, without purposely adding to it?  Ridiculous. 

Forward To The Past: Our Home Computers

In the ongoing boom of personal technology, the iPad and its various imitators has led the pack of late.  The latest version is arriving in stores today.  The trend to tablets is unmistakably clear and large. 

Do tablets do anything a laptop or desktop computer can't do?  No.  They have the advantage in portability, but beyond that they do far less, IF you actually use your computer for things a computer is good at, you'll probably never embrace a tablet.   I keep a half-dozen databases, I do some online publishing, I do my two blogs, I edit photos, I do bookkeeping and taxes for a small business and a charitable organization -- none of these would be particularly convenient to do on a tablet, even if it had the requisite memory and speed to run the programs involved.  While I don't do much with graphics or design programs, I'm pretty sure artists, architects and others would also find tablets sadly wanting for these purposes.

But the question posed above is the wrong one to ask.  Although tablets arose out of the concept of the home computer, they're not really computers, but mobile entertainment centers.  (To put a retro twist on it, they are today's transistor radios, just as SUVs are today's station wagons.)  Tablets are all about fun and games -- movies, music, photos, web surfing, e-books, shopping, and e-mail -- and that's probably what about 90% of users really want. 

The genius of the iPad was in deconstructing the 1990s concept of home computers. Two decades ago, computers made the jump from offices to people's homes, largely based on the much-ballyhooed advantages of all the wonderful things they'd be able to do.  Mostly, these were the same things the iPad now does (allowing for the inevitable advances in technology).  The computer world is now being re-stacked into a consumer/consumption segment (increasingly, tablets) and a work/production segment.

I'm comfortable with that, so long as I can still get a desktop to do the things I need to do.  On that score, Microsoft's new operating system (Windows 8), which by all accounts is focused on moving its software to giving the user a touch-screen, tablet-like experience, gives some cause for concern.  The main issue I see is that the new OS won't allow you to keep more than two programs or "windows" open at once.  This makes impossible my standard operating procedure, when I'm likely to have - and need - four or five things open. 

So far Microsoft is getting high praise from techies for reinventing itself, and the trend away from proprietary software isn't new.   Microsoft appears to have thrown in the towel to it, but I for one am tired of costly format, program, and interface changes and hope this latest one is a leap I can avoid until my dotage.  If not, I suppose I'll find myself having to migrate to different OSs and software, maybe UNIX based.